The Future of Quantum Computing: What to Expect Soon

1. Introduction 

In one of my earlier blogs, I mentioned that quantum computers are not going to replace digital computers. This assertion is supported by research on quantum computing, which has advanced alongside digital computing. In 1968, Stephen Wiesner introduced the first concept for coding on a quantum computer. In 1973, Alexander Holevo described the qubit and its ability to carry more information than a digital bit. Paul Benioff's 1980 work laid the technical foundation for quantum computers. Following this, significant foundational research was conducted, leading to the creation of the first working quantum computer at Oxford University in 1998. By 2007, the first commercial quantum computer was operational.

The drive for quantum computing research has primarily been fueled by cryptography and the quest to understand quantum mechanics. Early on, it became clear that digital computers would never possess sufficient computational power to fully grasp quantum mechanics. Despite the remarkable evolution of digital computers over the past 50 years, this limitation remains. Interestingly, we need to build quantum computers to understand how they work, reflecting a historical pattern where technology is often used before it is fully understood.
Understanding quantum mechanics could revolutionize our lives, work, and capabilities. It could make energy, materials, food and clean water abundantly available, eradicate diseases, and eliminate waste. The only remaining challenge might be finding life among the stars.
While these prospects sound fantastical, and I believe I will witness the initial results within my lifetime, they won't be realized in the next five years. So, what can we expect from quantum computing in the near future?
To start with, quantum computing is still in its infancy. There are numerous challenges to overcome, such as error correction, reducing energy consumption, lowering costs, controlling qubits, scalability, and the limited number of operations we can currently perform  (read here for more information about how quantum computers work).

AI generated picture that symbolizes the future of quantum compute

2. Error Correction

In the short term, it is expected that error correction will be addressed by using multiple physical qubits to create a single logical qubit (TU Delft, n.d.). As previously mentioned, the results produced by qubits are more statistical and less deterministic. Combining more physical qubits into one logical qubit improves the accuracy of the results. However, this process requires significant computational capacity for error correction. The advantage is that quantum computers become reliable and usable, as trustworthy results are essential for their functionality.
It is anticipated that 10,000 physical qubits can form one logical qubit with an error rate comparable to current digital computers (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, 2019).
Once effective error correction is achieved, quantum computing applications are expected to emerge in two primary fields: chemistry and cryptography (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, 2019). As discussed in my earlier blogs, quantum computers differ from digital computers, and most applications will require digital computing supported by quantum computers for specialized tasks.

3. Chemistry

Quantum computers are revolutionizing chemistry through quantum simulations that predict specific properties of molecules. For example, they can optimize fertilizer production, a process that currently consumes a lot of energy. In nature, certain bacteria in plant roots perform this task with much less energy. While even the most powerful digital computers cannot analyze this natural process, quantum computers can (Reiher et al., 2017). Quantum computers could also help us understand how trees capture carbon from the air or how to break down microplastics, potentially leading to natural solutions for air purification (Reiher et al., 2017).
As discussed in earlier blogs, quantum computers do not replace digital computers but enhance their calculations. In understanding biochemical processes, digital computers optimize the workload for quantum computers and interpret the results. Quantum computers handle the parts that digital computers cannot, combining the strengths of both technologies.
To perform such calculations, a quantum computer would need a million logical qubits, which translates to 10 billion physical qubits (Reiher et al., 2017). A more feasible approach is to combine smaller quantum computers. For instance, 202 quantum computers with a million physical qubits each could achieve the same goal (Reiher et al., 2017). Microsoft has launched the Majorana 1 processor for this purpose, based on the research of Reiher et al. (2017) (Microsoft, 2025-2). The Majorana 1 processor can fit a million qubits on a single chip and improves reliability. While we are not there yet, Microsoft aims to achieve this within a few years. Combining hundreds of these chips could enable the analysis of biological processes (Microsoft, 2025-2).

The Majorana 1 processor (Microsoft, 2025-2)



4. Cryptography

Cryptography protects information stored on computers or transmitted over networks, ensuring that only trusted parties can access it. These parties can be individuals, machines, or organizations like health providers and banks.

Quantum computers have the theoretical power to break current cryptographic protections and access all stored or transmitted data. Historically, the increasing power of digital computers has broken cryptographic algorithms like MD5. While it is unlikely that a quantum computer will compromise RSA-2048 or similar encryption before 2030 (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, 2019), the risk lies in the future. Data stored today could be decrypted by quantum computers in the future, posing a significant risk for long-term data protection.
Two quantum algorithms that can break cryptography are Grover's algorithm and Shor's algorithm.
Grover's algorithm is designed for data searches and solution testing, not specifically for breaking cryptography. It can test multiple solutions simultaneously, making it effective for decrypting data (Microsoft, 2025-1). Shor's algorithm, on the other hand, is intended to factor large numbers into their prime factors, which is a foundation for many cryptographic algorithms (Brubaker, 2024). This algorithm uses a periodic function related to prime numbers, making it much more efficient than classical methods (Brubaker, 2024).
To break RSA-1024 encryption in one day, a quantum computer would need 2,300 logical qubits. RSA-2048 requires 10,241 logical qubits (Brubaker, 2024). Combining 202 Majorana 1 processors could break RSA-4096 in a reasonable time (Reiher et al., 2017).
Other cryptographic algorithms, like AES-128, can also be broken by quantum computers, though it is significantly harder than breaking RSA-2048. SHA-256, used for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, remains safe for now, but future improvements in quantum computing could change this (Brubaker, 2024).
The recommendation is to transition to Post-Quantum-Encryption algorithms and move away from using passwords for authentication. Two projects are working on selecting new Post-Quantum-Encryption algorithms: one led by NIST in the US and another by PQCRYPTO-EU in Europe (Nationaal Cyber Security Centrum, 2023). These projects are exploring both new quantum-resistant algorithms and additional layers to existing algorithms (Nationaal Cyber Security Centrum, 2023).

5. Conclusion

In conclusion, while quantum computing is still in its early stages, significant advancements are expected in the near future, particularly in error correction and scalability. These improvements will pave the way for practical applications in fields like chemistry and cryptography. Quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of complex biochemical processes and enhance cryptographic security. However, the journey to fully functional quantum computing involves overcoming substantial technical challenges. As we progress, the integration of quantum and digital computing will likely become a powerful tool for solving problems that are currently beyond our reach. The future of quantum computing holds promise, but it requires continued research and development to realize its full potential.

Sources

Brubaker, B., (2024, 4 January). Thirty Years Later, a Speed Boost for Quantum Factoring. Quanta Magazine. https://www.quantamagazine.org/thirty-years-later-a-speed-boost-for-quantum-factoring-20231017/

Microsoft (2025, 16 January). Theory of Grover Search Algorithm - Azure Quantum. Microsoft Learn. https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/quantum/concepts-grovers

Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip carves new path for quantum computing - Source. (2025, 19 February). Source. https://news.microsoft.com/source/features/innovation/microsofts-majorana-1-chip-carves-new-path-for-quantum-computing/

Nationaal Cyber Security Centrum. (2023, 4 December). Factsheet Post-quantum cryptography. Factsheet | National Cyber Security Centre. https://english.ncsc.nl/publications/factsheets/2019/juni/01/factsheet-post-quantum-cryptography

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (2019). Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects. The National Academies Press, Washington DC. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25196

Reiher, M., Wiebe, N., M. Svore, K., Wecker, D., & Troyer, M. (2017). Elucidating Reaction Mechanisms on Quantum Computers. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/1605.03590-2.pdf

TU Delft (n.d.).The near-term future of quantum computers . https://www.tudelft.nl/over-tu-delft/strategie/vision-teams/quantum-computing/applications/the-near-term-future-of-quantum-computers

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